Infrastructure Australia’s independent evaluation of the Queensland Government’s business case for Cross River Rail finds the benefits of the proposed project are overstated with costs likely to exceed its benefits.
The independent body came to the conclusion after a ‘rigorous assessment process’ of the current business case for the project.
“We have reached the conclusion that the benefits of the proposed project, as set out in the business case, are significantly overstated, and that the costs of the project as currently presented are likely to exceed its benefits,” stated Infrastructure Australia Chief Executive Philip Davies in a statement.
“Based on a thorough evidence-based analysis of the business case, we have found that the rail patronage growth projections and the estimation of project benefits are unrealistically high.”
He continued to say that Infrastructure Australia regularly assesses business cases for nationally significant projects as part of its role as an independent advisor to governments and the assumptions that have been used to justify the benefits in the Cross River Rail business case are well in excess of those it has seen for comparable projects.
“For example, the projected rail patronage growth in the business case is 7 times faster than actual growth in Brisbane over the last decade and 2.5 times that of comparable projects in larger Australian cities,” said Mr. Davies.
“Infrastructure Australia first raised concerns with the Queensland Government about the business case for Cross River Rail in July 2016. To date, the issues we raised have not been fully addressed”, he said.
Infrastructure Australia has determined that Cross River Rail will remain on the Infrastructure Priority List, however the current proposal cannot be added to the list of projects with an approved business case at this time.
“We would welcome the opportunity to consider a revised business case from the Queensland Government addressing our concerns about the assumptions and projections used in the business case. A revised business case should also quantify potential benefits from land use change and urban renewal expected to result from the proposed project, and potential benefits from better integration of Brisbane’s rail and bus networks,” he said.
“We are committed to working with the Queensland Government to evaluate and prioritise proposals for nationally significant infrastructure.”
The evaluation of the business case for Cross River Rail is now available on the Infrastructure Australia website.