The National Transport Research Organisation (NTRO) is launching its brand-new NTRO Project AI platform, an innovative tool that will give transport agencies unprecedented access and insight into potential project challenges. NTRO CEO Michael Caltabiano explains.
Cost and scheduling overruns continue to be a significant impact on infrastructure delivery.
According to a report filed in 2020 by the Grattan Institute, costs exceeded budgets in 21 per cent of projects (valued at $20 million or more) completed over the past two decades. It’s why the National Transport Research Organisation (NTRO) has been working on a brand-new platform, aimed at directly addressing this industry issue.
NTRO Project AI is an innovative tool developed in conjunction with Octant AI, that uses artificial intelligence to predict and prevent cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects.
The platform reviews project data monthly and uses advanced learning algorithms to forecast potential cost escalations three to six months in advance.
Initially focused on the transport sector across roads, rail, ports and airports, it helps project leaders identify and address potential issues before they become major problems.
NTRO Chief Executive Officer Michael Caltabiano says the NTRO holds a unique responsibility in the sector, with the ability to advise both public and private industry on solutions that can improve the entire transport sector.
“The NTRO is in a really interesting position,” he says. “Our job is to provide insight, guidance and technical support on the challenges that transport agencies face into the future, to help them overcome these challenges through the application of technology, skills, standards and specifications.
“Over the past four to five years, it’s been clear that cost escalation on road, rail, port and airport projects is really costing the community, as less is being built with the same amount of money and a lot of it has been the consequence of cost overruns.”
A fortuitous run-in during an overseas trip provided a ‘light bulb moment’ for Caltabiano and the NTRO team, as he explains.
“Project management and the skills around project delivery are a field of endeavour in its own right. I was talking with some colleagues that I had met in my international travels from Oxford, who had developed an AI model to look into how projects change and whether some of the related challenges were predictable,” he says.
“We expressed interest in partnering to develop such a tool, that supports both the public and private sector with having a line of sight over project items, as well as a chance to prevent potential cost blow outs.
“If you know the problem you’re trying to solve, you can solve it before it becomes a massive problem.”
Early days
Project AI is the brainchild of Octant AI and its Co-Founders, David Porter and Cuong Quang. Both colleagues of Oxford University, Porter and Quang’s combined knowledge of the construction industry and Artificial Intelligence technology helped to pave the way for the innovative tool. As Porter explains.
“Every project and portfolio has only three outcomes: benefits outcome, completion time outcome, and completion cost outcome. When things don’t turn out as expected, it hurts all stakeholders,” he says.
“Now people are listening and the value of accurately predicting cost and time outcomes is increasingly understood in a world that’s increasingly uncertain. If you can increase [project] certainty, then the whole world is a better place, and we’ve developed some technology which is quite unique in its ability to do that.”
Quang says that before the NTRO came onboard, it was imperative for the company and the platform that benchmark performance and value were demonstrated on real projects. Not only to deliver on Project AI’s promised features, but also to justify its use in both the public and private sectors.
“These were rail projects, road projects and more. These projects not only helped us to develop the technology, but became very important proof points for the NTRO,” he says.
“What came out of that was independent validation that what we said we could do, actually we can do. There were case studies that were important for the NTRO to scrutinise, demonstrating that the technology could be made widely available and create social and economic value.”
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As with other generative AI tools, NTRO Project AI is constantly improving and expanding by using learning algorithms that become increasingly accurate as more data sets are added to the platform.
NTRO Project AI can also learn more and provide increasingly accurate assessments on a given project as works progress, providing comprehensive insight across the entire project lifecycle. The tool has so far been validated through several case studies, particularly with Queensland’s Department of Transport and Main Roads.
Caltabiano says these trials have reflected the platform’s ability to provide greater certainty, improve project management, and deliver better value for money in infrastructure development.
“It’s been a great project and partnership in understanding the geography of Australia, how projects are delivered and running these models over projects that have been completed, and seeing where projects went wrong,” he says.
“We have seen over the last two years, through our work with industry and government, Project AI’s ability to predict what can go wrong and then observe lessons from those mistakes. We’ve validated it, tested it and now it’s a wonderful platform for agencies in the transport and construction sectors to get much better outturn cost performance.”
NTRO Project AI now is just the latest evolution in the NTRO’s expanding list of offerings, with the platform able to be used in conjunction with the iPAVE (Intelligent Pavement Assessment Vehicle) for enhanced road maintenance and upkeep, among others.
Equipped with a range of data collection systems, iPAVE can assess both the structural and functional condition of the road, using laser technology to look at characteristics including roughness, surface texture, and rutting. The iPAVE can also collect sub-surface data at the same time, giving experts a better understanding of what’s happening underneath the road surface.
“It’s the NTRO’s goal that we can be a partner and set up the sector for success throughout the whole life cycle of design, data capture, setting up the project for success, building the project, using Project AI to deliver turn costs and then monitoring the performance of the road, port or airport using iPAVE for the next 20 to 30 years of that asset’s life,” Caltabiano says.
The NTRO isn’t finished here either, with the organisation aiming to progressively expand Project AI’s capabilities across different infrastructure and construction sectors, leveraging the platform’s proven predictive technology.
This includes vertical construction, offshore pipeline projects, as well as the gas and oil industries.
“The transformation of the NTRO is so significant for the nation, and that transformation has been about providing new insight and new knowledge through new data sets,” Caltabiano says.
“We are world leading in our ability to provide insight into airport, port and road structure performance, so that when contractors go out to do maintenance, they’ve got the most accurate data sets to allow them to deliver works on time and on budget.
“It’s about supporting the owners and transport agencies of Australia with maintenance plans based on real data and performance, not some guide that was written decades ago.”
For Octant AI, and it’s pioneering Co-Founders, the future is largely focused on translating technology into actual value that improves project performance.
“The NTRO persevered with us, and we with them. They had the vision to realise that sooner or later, AI would be addressing everything, and they understood the value of the technology,” Porter says.
“If you can increase that certainty, then the whole world is a better place, and that’s a really worthwhile thing to strive for.”
Quang agrees, saying that the sky’s the limit when it comes to Project AI, as well as the on-going partnership with the NTRO.
“Seeing that technology being transformed into actual value, something that improves the way these projects perform. That’s what really excites me,” he says.
This article was originally published in the June edition of our magazine. To read the magazine, click here.
